High resolution mean sea level pressure and ensemble spread
Base Time: Mon 15 Apr 2024 12 UTC T+96 Valid time: Fri 19 Apr 2024 12 UTC (T+96)
Ensemble forecasts explained
One 'ensemble forecast' consists of 51 separate forecasts made by the same computer model, all activated from the same starting time. The starting conditions for each member of the ensemble are slightly different, and physical parameter values used also differ slightly. The differences between these ensemble members tend to grow as the forecasts progress, that is as the forecast lead time increases. The black lines represent the mean of all the ensemble forecasts for a given time, while the shading indicates the spread. See the middle icon at the bottom right for the colour scale.
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